Zimbabwe might be paying $10 at New Zealand's TAB to win the one-off Test starting at Napier on Thursday (local time), but captain Brendan Taylor must fancy his team as better than that, and his namesake and rival Ross Taylor will be aware that his eighth-ranked New Zealand barely scraped a win at Bulawayo in the previous encounter between the two sides.
On a green wicket where breaking the opposition top order will be crucial, New Zealand are expected to go for a bowling-heavy team similar to the one that beat Australia in Hobart last month. Their own top order has been settled recently and is likely to consist of Martin Guptill, Brendon McCullum, Kane Williamson and Taylor, with Dean Brownlie, Daniel Vettori and BJ Watling to follow. Watling batted at No. 5 in the Bulawayo Test, but Brownlie looked impressive in the two Test series against Australia and will probably remain in that position. There is an outside chance that Sam Wells might play in order to strengthen an otherwise long tail.
New Zealand's success in Hobart will likely see them pick the same bowling attack for this Test. It will be interesting to see if Doug Bracewell, whose 9-60 was instrumental in that victory, can maintain his level of skill. Tim Southee will see this match as an opportunity to lower his bowling average from a disappointing 42.8, Trent Boult will want to cement a place in the bowling lineup in his second Test, and Chris Martin will shoulder much of the workload with his medium-fast line and length.
Much of Zimbabwe's hopes will rest with the fortunes of their captain Taylor, whose fourth-innings century, with eight boundaries and five sixes, nearly stole the Bulawayo Test from the Black Caps. The 25-year old Taylor has improved vastly since his debut and is a far better batsman than his average of 31.2 suggests. He also has recent experience in New Zealand conditions thanks to his stint with Wellington in the HRV Cup, the local Twenty20 tournament. If New Zealand can dismiss the Zimbabwean openers cheaply they will have to bring out their best to get rid of Taylor, and the winning of the match might lie in them doing so.
Even if Zimbabwe's batting doesn't fire they will consider themselves in with a chance of bowling New Zealand out for less. The new ball will probably be shared by the muscular Kyle Jarvis - whose pace accounted for five New Zealand wickets in the second innings of their last encounter - and Brian Vitori, who at age 21 has already shown promise, if without consistency. Vitori has taken two five-wicket hauls in only five ODIs and if he can perform well on a wicket that will suit his ability to move the ball at pace, Zimbabwe are in with a good chance of an upset win away from home.
Probables ( New Zealand ) : 1. Martin Guptill, 2. Brendon McCullum, 3. Kane Williamson, 4. Ross Taylor (c), 5. Dean Brownlie, 6. Daniel Vettori, 7. BJ Watling (wk), 8. Doug Bracewell, 9. Tim Southee, 10. Trent Boult, 11. Chris Martin.
Probables ( Zimbabwe ) : 1. Tinotenda Mawayo, 2. Stuart Matsikenyeri, 3. Hamilton Mazakadza, 4. Brendan Taylor (c), 5. Tatenda Taibu (wk), 6. Malcolm Waller, 7. Regis Chakabva, 8. Keegan Meth, 9. Graeme Cremer, 10. Kyle Jarvis, 11. Brian Vitori.
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