After clean sweeping Zimbabwe in all three formats, the Black Caps will be high on confidence leading into tomorrow's first T20 against South Africa (local time). Although Zimbabwe's southern neighbours will be much tougher, New Zealand will go into the series knowing that they are playing close to their best game. The 20-over format is the only one in which New Zealand outrank the Proteas, and South Africa will know that victory here will allow them an edge in the ODI and Test series that could counter the Black Caps' home advantage.
Although Jacob Oram will miss the first T20 with a calf problem, New Zealand will play the match with a team that has already shown it can win. All of Brendon McCullum, Martin Guptill, Rob Nicol, Kane Williamson and James Franklin played important innings against the Zimbabweans, and it is unlikely that New Zealand will tinker with something that is working. Colin de Grandhomme, who didn't play a major role in the last T20 victory, will probably be given another chance to show what he can do.
It's possible that New Zealand will try and beat South Africa by setting a good score and then strangling the reply with aggressive fielding and tight spin, rather than by taking wickets. This was the strategy that worked so well in the 2011 Cricket World Cup, and, with Nathan McCullum and Tim Southee returning from that game and the selection of the economical Ronnie Hira, signs are that this will be Plan A for the Kiwis.
The Proteas will be a little bit concerned about the softness of some top-order dismissals in the warm-up match against Canterbury, with Colin Ingram making two and AB de Villiers only four, although Richard Levi showed promise in the warm-up match and will be unfamiliar to the Black Caps. Scoring 150 against a provincial side will not scare a New Zealand team who chased down 201 in their last outing. Canterbury's spin attack managed to bog the South Africans down and if New Zealand copy this strategy then a new batting approach might be required.
One area of their performance against Canterbury that will not concern the South Africans is their bowling, with Lonwabo Tsotsobe taking 4-18 off his four overs and Morne Morkel also economical. Although Johan Botha and Rusty Theron both went for 34 they faced some highly aggressive Canterbury batting and will be dangerous against New Zealand, although it will be up to Tsotsobe, who strikes at 15.6 with the ball in T20 internationals, to make early inroads.
New Zealand (Probable): 1. Brendon McCullum, 2. Martin Guptill, 3. Rob Nicol, 4. Kane Williamson, 5. James Franklin, 6. Colin de Grandhomme, 7. Nathan McCullum, 8. Doug Bracewell, 9. Kyle Mills, 10. Ronnie Hira, 11. Tim Southee.
South Africa (Probable): 1. Richard Levi, 2. Hashim Amla, 3. Colin Ingram, 4. AB de Villiers, 5. JP Duminy, 6. Justin Ontong, 7. Albie Morkel, 8. Johan Botha, 9. Morne Morkel, 10. Rusty Theron, 11. Lonwabo Tsotsobe.
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